Sunderland's Europa League progression hinges on securing enough points in the new league stage format, with analysis pointing to a 12-point target. The club's continental campaign kicks off at home to AZ Alkmaar on 16 September with the team currently 11th in the Premier League after two games.
Sunderland have taken three points from their opening domestic fixtures, scoring and conceding two goals. They sit three points behind leaders Manchester City ahead of a key home match against second-placed Arsenal on 12 September. The immediate focus then shifts to Europe.
The competition adopted a significant change for the 2024-25 season. Instead of traditional groups, all 36 teams compete in a single league table. Each side plays eight matches, four at home and four away. The top eight teams advance directly to the round of 16, where they are seeded and guaranteed to play the second leg at home.
Teams finishing between 9th and 24th enter a playoff knockout round for a place in the last 16. Those from 25th down are eliminated. This places a premium on every point from the opening eight games.
Historical data from recent Champions League and Europa League seasons under similar formats provides a clear benchmark. In three of the last four combined seasons, the team finishing 8th accrued 16 points. The other required 14 points. The margin can be fine, as seen when Roma pipped Genk to 8th in 2023-24 on goal difference.
For a playoff spot (9th-24th), the threshold is lower. Twelve points should almost certainly be enough based on past editions. In two previous competitions, nine points with a superior goal difference secured a playoff place. Two others required ten and eleven points respectively.
Last season's Europa League offers concrete examples. Aston Villa finished second in the league stage with an impressive 21 points from seven wins and one loss. Nottingham Forest ended 13th with 14 points from four wins, two draws, and two losses.
In the 2022-23 season, Manchester United finished third with 18 points and Tottenham Hotspur fourth with 17 points. These figures show the spread of points required for different levels of success. The full squad will need to contribute across all eight matches.
The analysis suggests Sunderland should target a minimum of 12 points from their eight games. This would almost guarantee a playoff round berth and keep hopes of a top-eight finish alive. Achieving this likely requires winning at least three of their four home matches at the Stadium of Light.
Picking up a couple of victories on the road would significantly aid the cause. Every point matters in a condensed table, and goal difference could become a decisive factor. The schedule, available on our fixtures page, will test the squad's depth.
The author's analysis stated, "It's not long until Sunderland kick off our Europa League campaign with a home tie against AZ Alkmaar on the 16th of September." They also noted, "In last season's Europa League, Aston Villa finished second in the league stage on 21 points, with seven wins out of eight games."
The team's current Premier League form, with one win and one loss, provides a foundation to build upon. Their next challenge is Arsenal at home on 12 September, just four days before the European opener against AZ Alkmaar.
