Sunderland's Underlying Numbers Suggest a Mid-Table Finish

Sunderland's performances in the 2025-26 season were impressive, but their underlying numbers suggest a mid-table finish. According to expected goals (xG) numbers, Sunderland scored three more goals and conceded six fewer than expected given the number and quality of shots taken.

Why Sunderland's Underlying Numbers Matter

Sunderland's xG numbers are a key indicator of their performance, and they suggest that the team's success was not just a fluke. While Aston Villa and Sunderland made a mockery of xG by finishing much higher in the table, the majority of sides finished mostly in line with their underlying numbers.

The Impact of the Africa Cup of Nations

Sunderland's performances were affected by the Africa Cup of Nations, which saw six players from the team absent during the tournament in December and January. The team's underlying numbers improved throughout the rest of the season, but they still finished with a -6 goal difference.

What Comes Next?

With no Africa Cup of Nations this season, Sunderland may not suffer the same drop in performance. If they continue to play like they finished the last season, relegation should be only a remote possibility.

Sunderland's League standing (final 2025 table -- new season not yet under way) is 7th in Premier League, 54 pts, 14W-12D-12L from 38 games, recent form WWDDL. They have scored 42 goals and conceded 48, with a -6 goal difference. They are 31 points behind leaders Arsenal and have won their last three games.

A Strong Start to the Season

Sunderland's recent form has been impressive, with three wins and two draws in their last five games. They are currently on a three-game winning run and look to continue their momentum into the new season.

Injuries and Absences

Nordi Mukiele and Omar Alderete are currently sidelined, but Sunderland's manager will be hoping that they will be back to full strength soon.

Conclusion

Sunderland's underlying numbers suggest a mid-table finish, but the team's performances were affected by the Africa Cup of Nations. With no Africa Cup of Nations this season, Sunderland may be able to replicate their success in the 2026-27 season.